Why DO experts say the outbreak is slowing if the death toll is continuing to soar?

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There is a roughly three-week time delay between someone catching the disease and dying from it, which means it takes about 21 days for a trend in cases to translate to the fatality figures.
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Prominent SAGE scientists claimed today Britain's winter coronavirus wave is flattening after cases fell for four days straight — despite the country recording its worst death toll ever on Wednesday.

Another 1,564 more Covid fatalities were announced yesterday across the UK in the deadliest day since the pandemic began, with the total number of laboratory-confirmed victims on track to pass the grisly 100,000 mark by February.

But Sir Patrick Vallance, No10's chief scientific officer, and Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling plunged the UK into its first lockdown in March, said there are 'early signs' the third national shutdown is slowing the crisis.

They have pointed to the fact that, nationally, the number of people catching Covid is trending downwards, with the 47,525 positive tests yesterday across Britain down by a quarter on last week's figure.

But there is a roughly three-week time delay between someone catching the disease and dying from it, which means it takes about 21 days for a trend in cases to translate to the fatality figures.

Because Britain only went into lockdown a week ago, daily Covid deaths are likely to continue to rise for at least another fortnight before falling.

Here, MailOnline answers your questions on the UK's current Covid situation:

Are cases going down everywhere?

Covid infection rates are falling across swathes of authorities in the UK, according to most recent official data up to January 8.

Cases are falling in boroughs in London, the South East and East of England — which were bearing the brunt of the winter wave ahead of the national shutdown on January 4.

Infections in Kent — one of the first areas of England to be slapped with the harshest local lockdown measures — were actually slowing before the third lockdown, suggesting the tough Tier Four restrictions in place there were having some effect.

In London, the number of people testing positive per 100,000 fell from a peak of 1,116 on January 4 to…
Connor Boyd Assistant, By Connor Boyd Assistant Health Editor For Mailonline
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