Analysis: How Trump's base appeals have backfired

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Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University national poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 52% to 42% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters.
(CNN)

That's somewhat of a more optimistic result for Biden than the average of national polls , which has Biden's margin closer to 7 points.

Trump's 2020 campaign and, indeed, his entire presidency has been about rallying the Republican base. Thanks to Trump's messaging, the percentage of voters who see him as conservative has jumped during his presidency compared to where it was during the 2016 campaign.

The problem for Trump is that in his efforts to appease the base, he has lost his ability to appeal to those outside of it. If Trump ends up losing, it'll be because his gains with the Republican base have not been offset by his losses among other voters.

You can see this well in Quinnipiac's polling. Trump's got an 84-point lead over Biden among Republicans right now. That's larger than the 81-point advantage Trump had at this point in the 2016 cycle

What makes his gain with Republicans startling is that his overall standing is 9 points worse when comparing Quinnipiac's poll in late September 2020 to late September 2016.

The culprit is Trump's doing much worse with Democrats and independents. He was up 7 points with independents in Quinnipiac's poll four years ago. Today, Trump's down with independents by 8 points. Trump's deficit among Democrats…
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
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