Everything You Need To Know About The Special Election In Texas's 6th District

fivethirtyeight.com
5 min read
standard
On Saturday, voters will decide who among 23 candidates — 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one independent and one libertarian — will replace Rep. Ron Wright, who …
On Saturday, voters will decide who among 23 candidates — 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one independent and one libertarian — will replace Rep. Ron Wright, who died in February after contracting COVID-19. One of five special elections to take place during President Biden's first few months in office, this jungle primary in Texas is arguably the most competitive, as the district — once drawn as a GOP stronghold — has gradually started to become a battleground.

That might come as a shock to some, considering Texas is traditionally a ruby red state and the 6th Congressional District has been firmly in Republicans' grip since at least 1984. To be clear, the race is still very much the GOP's to lose, but that doesn't mean Democrats aren't taking the election seriously. A resulting runoff election in the next few months is almost certain, and based on the changing demographics of the district, it's very possible that it will be a Democrat and a Republican who square off.

So, here's what to keep an eye on before and after polls close at 7 p.m. Central on Saturday and why we should look at the results as a harbinger of what's to come in 2022.

For starters, polling on this race is mixed. A March poll by Victoria Research, which was sponsored by Jana Lynne Sanchez, a Democrat running for the seat, found longtime GOP activist Susan Wright, the widow of Ron Wright, leading the crowded pack of candidates with 21 percent support. She's followed by Sanchez, who lost to Ron Wright in 2018 by nearly 8 percentage points, at 17 percent. Following Sanchez is Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey (8 percent), Democrat Lydia Bean (5 percent) and Democrat Shawn Lassiter (3 percent). Another poll, commissioned in April by The Washington Free Beacon, showed Sanchez leading Wright by 3 points (20 percent to 17 percent). This polling question, however, asked respondents to choose among only eight of the candidates in the race — four Republicans and four Democrats. A third poll, from Data for…
Alex Samuels
Read full article