Leading Pollster Trafalgar Seeing GOP Trends - AMAC - The Association of Mature American Citizens

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fairly difficult
"People know that America is not the major country dirtying the planet," he said, pointing to polling data released from Trafalgar yesterday
AMAC Exclusive – by Shane Harris

Since President Trump effectively broke traditional polling models in 2016, perhaps no pollster has understood the new direction of the country – and as a result the most effective ways to measure public sentiment – better than Robert Cahaly, the CEO of the Trafalgar Group. The firm was the most accurate in predicting the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, called DeSantis' narrow victory in Florida in 2018 after most other pollsters got it wrong, and was among the most accurate in 2020, particularly at the state level.

AMAC Newsline interviewed Cahaly earlier this year to break down some of the trends seen in the 2020 election cycle, and we recently caught up with him again to get his perspective on how he sees the 2022 midterm race developing, as well as a few key races that are happening around the country this year.

Cahaly noted generally that, throughout the country, "Biden is dragging the Democrat brand down." Specifically, he pointed to the ongoing effort of Biden and Democrat governors to continue imposing COVID restrictions — even as more than 182 million Americans have been fully vaccinated — as a major reason for Democrats' sinking poll numbers. "Anybody who is pushing any restrictions is going to be met with resistance… and they [voters] think people aren't going to work because the government is paying them to stay home, and they don't like it."

Cahaly pointed to Trafalgar's recent poll in Michigan, which showed incumbent Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer trailing Republican challenger James Craig, the former Detroit Police Chief, by six points—a major shock. Whitmer has infamously imposed some of the most draconian lockdown policies anywhere in the country. "Anyone who doubts that Michigan is fed up [with Whitmer's policies], sit outside one of the football stadiums and tell me how many people are hesitant to come in because of COVID," Cahaly added.

Cahaly also mentioned Craig as one of a number of rising…
Amac Newsline
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