Roseanne McManus

Even though they have already witnessed four years of a Donald Trump presidency, analysts have little certainty about how Trump plans to approach most countries in his second term.

Roseanne McManus, Foreign Affairs Even though they have already witnessed four years of a Donald Trump presidency, analysts have little certainty about how Trump plans to approach most...

The Limits of Madman Theory

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Trump likes to think his unpredictability is an asset.

Will Trump's Madman Theory Work?

Is there a method behind the Trump administration's madness? Yes, on both negotiation tactics and long-term economic strategy. But the path to get there is not only rocky; it's full of pitfalls.

Why Trump's 'madman theory' tactics could run aground amid trade reversals

Western leaders cling to the hope that the Russian leader is bluffing about an invasion.

Putin and the Madman Theory of Diplomacy

Many now assume Trump's most extreme-sounding threats are bluffs. How sure are they?

The madman theory of Trump and tariffs

For game theory, it's easy to state its precepts; difficult to explain its limits. And the field does have limits. Our very existence helps highlight them and acts to disprove the theory's universal applicability.

The Limits of Game Theory

This is a follow-up post to the last section of Ukraine Post #2 on the need for Better Decision Theory. In particular I want to think more about the following result and some resulting logic and ex…